Can’t hold it anymore! Many countries in Southeast Asia are forced to lie flat! Unblock the blockade, protect the economy, and “compromise” to the epidemic…
Since June this year, the Delta strain has penetrated the epidemic prevention line of Southeast Asian countries, and the newly confirmed cases in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries have risen sharply, setting records repeatedly.
In order to curb the accelerated spread of delta, Southeast Asian economies have adopted blockade measures, with factories shutting down production, shops closing, and economic activities almost shutting down. But after the blockade for a period of time, these countries almost couldn’t hold on, and began to take the risk of “lifting the ban”…
#01
The economies of Southeast Asian countries are facing collapse, and orders from many countries have shifted!
Southeast Asian countries are the world’s important raw material supply and manufacturing processing bases. Vietnam’s textile industry, Malaysia’s chips, Vietnam’s mobile phone manufacturing, and Thailand’s automobile factories all occupy an important position in the global manufacturing supply chain.
The latest report cards submitted by Southeast Asian countries are “horrible”. The manufacturing PMI of Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia all fell below the 50 dry line in August. For example, the PMI of Vietnam fell to 40.2 for three consecutive months. The Philippines It fell to 46.4, the low since May 2020, and so on.
Even a report by Goldman Sachs in July lowered the economic forecasts of the five Southeast Asian countries: Malaysia’s GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered to 4.9%, Indonesia to 3.4%, the Philippines to 4.4%, and Thailand to 1.4%. Singapore, which has a better anti-epidemic situation, dropped to 6.8%.
Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, it is not uncommon for factories across Southeast Asia to gradually close, transportation costs have risen sharply, and shortages of parts and components. This has not only affected the development of the global manufacturing industry, but has also had a serious impact on the economies of Southeast Asian countries.
Especially with the increase of daily confirmed cases in Southeast Asian countries, the recovery momentum of Thailand’s key industry-tourism is also rapidly disappearing…
The Indian market is also facing shrinking, coupled with worker infections, production efficiency has dropped again and again, and even suspended production. In the end, many small and medium-sized factories were forced to close temporarily or directly declared bankruptcy because they could not bear the losses.
The Ministry of Trade of Vietnam even warned this month that many factories have been closed due to strict restrictions (→For details, please click to view ←), and Vietnam is likely to lose overseas customers.
Affected by the closure of the city, most companies in the southern industrial areas around Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam are currently in a state of suspension of work and production. Manufacturing companies such as electronics, chips, textiles, and mobile phones are the most affected. Due to the three major crises of the loss of workers, orders, and capital in Vietnam’s manufacturing industry, not only did a large number of investors hold a wait-and-see attitude towards Vietnam’s business investment, but it also seriously affected the development of Vietnam’s current manufacturing industry.
The country’s European Chamber of Commerce estimates that 18% of its members have transferred some products to other countries to ensure that their supply chains are protected, and more members are expected to follow suit.
Wellian Wiranto, an economist at OCBC Bank, pointed out that as the crisis continues, the economic costs of successive rounds of blockades and the increasing fatigue of the people have overwhelmed Southeast Asian countries. Once turbulence occurs in Southeast Asia, it will definitely affect the global manufacturing supply chain.
The supply chain is affected, and the already strained national finances have worsened, and the blockade policy has also begun to waver.
#02
Southeast Asian countries have decided to “coexist with the virus” and open up their economies!
Realizing that the price of the blockade measures was an economic downturn, Southeast Asian countries decided to “go forward with heavy burdens”, risked unblocking, opened up their economies, and began to imitate Singapore’s strategy of “coexisting with the virus.”
On September 13, Indonesia announced that it would lower the level of restrictions on Bali to three levels; Thailand is actively opening up the tourism industry. From October 1st, vaccinated travelers can go to tourist attractions such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Pattaya; Vietnam Starting from the middle of this month, the ban has been gradually unblocked, no longer obsessed with clearing the virus, but coexisting with the virus; Malaysia has also slowly relaxed its epidemic prevention measures, and has also decided to promote the “tourism bubble”…
The analysis pointed out that if Southeast Asian countries continue to adopt blockade measures, they will inevitably affect economic growth, but abandoning the blockade and reopening the economy means that they will have to bear greater risks.
But even in this situation, the government has to choose to adjust its anti-epidemic policy and seek to achieve both economic development and anti-epidemic.
From factories in Vietnam and Malaysia, to barbershops in Manila, to office buildings in Singapore, Southeast Asian governments are promoting reopening plans to strike a balance between controlling the epidemic and maintaining the flow of personnel and capital.
To this end, a series of measures have been implemented, including food delivery by the military, isolation of workers, micro-blockades, and only allowing vaccinated people to enter restaurants and offices.
On September 8, 2021 local time, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the theater staff are preparing for the reopening.
And Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, is focusing on long-term measures.
The government is trying to strengthen regulations, such as mandatory regulations on masks that have lasted for several years. Indonesia has also formulated a “roadmap” for specific areas such as offices and schools to establish longer-term rules under the new normal.
The Philippines is trying to implement travel restrictions in more targeted areas to replace national or regional blockades, even to include streets or houses.
Vietnam is also experimenting with this measure. Hanoi has set up travel checkpoints, and the government has formulated different restrictions based on the virus risks in different parts of the city.
In Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, only people with a vaccine card can enter shopping malls and places of worship.
In Malaysia, only those with a vaccine card can go to the cinema. Singapore requires restaurants to check the vaccination status of diners.
In addition, in Manila, the government is considering the use of “vaccine bubbles” in workplaces and public transportation. This measure allows fully vaccinated people to travel or travel freely at their destinations without isolation.
Hold on, UBO CNC always stay with you forever 8 -)
Post time: Sep-18-2021